The Global Warming Scare
 

On December 15, 2009, Richard K. Moore sent a message to subscribers to his mailing list entitled global warming — The official NOAA ice core data. He included several graphs, derived from NOAA data from ice cores in central Greenland, showing ice temperature in degrees Centigrade plotted against historical time over the last 50,000 years. Since these graphs (on the riseup.net page) don't appear in all web browsers I reproduce them here:

Temperature 3000 BC to present
Temperature in °C 3000 BC to present

Temperature 9000 BC to present
Temperature in °C 9000 BC to present

Temperature 11,000 BC to present
Temperature in °C 11,000 BC to present

Temperature 50,000 BC to present
Temperature in °C 50,000 BC to present

Richard referenced the NOAA web page http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/metadata/noaa-icecore-2475.html as the source of the data used for these graphs, so I went to that site and (as Richard had done) I downloaded the data, loaded it into Excel, and plotted it. My graphs are in this Excel file.

After reading Richard's message, plotting the data and thinking about it, I sent the following two messages to Richard on December 15 (some [insertions] have been added):


Subject: global warming — The official NOAA ice core data

Hi Richard,

Following your investigation [as you said in your message], "I went to the official NOAA government site, and downloaded the raw data from the ice cores into Excel. I used Excel's charting feature, and compared it to" your graphs, and got the same results. Many thanks for this interesting presentation.

It certainly shows that the steep rise in temperature between about 1830 CE and about 1905 CE (the latest data from the ice cores) is far less than the steep rise which occurred 800-1000 CE at the start of the Medieval Warm Period, indicating that we have nothing to worry about.

My only reservation would be that the ice core data does not go beyond 1905, but even if that trend continued to 2000 it would still not be larger than the 800-1000 warming.

However, the AGW [Anthropogenic Global Warming] proponents could argue that even though, in the Medieval Warm Period, the temperature peaked at around 1030 CE and then went into major decline until 1257, there is no guarantee that the current warming phase will peak any time soon, and might continue upward. It might, but is there any evidence that it will? A case would have to be made that greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere since 1830 are the cause of the current warming phase and so (if they remain at current levels) will continue to push the temperature upward with no end in sight. This, I think, is the essential point of dispute, namely, whether the current warming phase can be explained in this way. But since the warming phase 800-1000 was [presumably] not due to the presence of greenhouse cases, such an explanation is dubious. Until climatologists can explain the 800-1000 warming phase I suspect we can't predict global temperature even in the near future.

Regards,
Peter Meyer


Subject: global warming

Hi Richard,

Further to my previous message, it could be objected that the data for the last 50K years prior to 1900 are just for one spot in central Greenland, and evidence is needed that this temperature record can be extrapolated worldwide.

However, my main point remains, that climatologists (correct me if I am mistaken) cannot explain the much larger warming phase at the start of the Medieval Warm Period, so cannot claim that the current warming must be due to the effects of greenhouse gases. They could, however, deny that there was such a much larger warming phase, but AFAIK the occurrence of the MWP has been established.

Regards,
Peter Meyer


Richard sent these two messages out on his mailing list and addeded the following reply:

Hi Peter,

Thanks for reproducing my little study. It seems we have our own distributed research center, with no pollution from funding.

As for whether Greenland was special, the NOAA has other ice data sets as well:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/icecore.html

I haven't had a chance to look at those yet, please let me know if you do anything with them. However, note that the NOAA reassures us, below, that the Greenland set is typical. This is included at the top of the Greenland data-set file:

ABSTRACT: Greenland ice-core records provide an exceptionally clear picture of many aspects of abrupt climate changes, and particularly of those associated with the Younger Dryas event, as reviewed here. Well-preserved annual layers can be counted confidently, with only 1% errors for the age of the end of the Younger Dryas 11,500 years before present. Ice-flow corrections allow reconstruction of snow accumulation rates over tens of thousands of years with little additional uncertainty. Glaciochemical and particulate data record atmospheric-loading changes with little uncertainty introduced by changes in snow accumulation. Confident paleothermometry is provided by site-specific calibrations using ice-isotopic ratios, borehole temperatures, and gas-isotopic ratios. Near-simultaneous changes in ice-core paleoclimatic indicators of local, regional, and more-widespread climate conditions demonstrate that much of the Earth experienced abrupt climate changes synchronous with Greenland within thirty years or less. Post-Younger Dryas changes have not duplicated the size, extent and rapidity of these paleoclimatic changes.

I agree with you that a case can still be made for global warming, if proof of CO2's alleged influence can be produced. But the biggest argument used so far by the global-warming crowd is that we are experiencing unprecedented and alarming temperatures, and that this correlates with CO2 levels. That argument seems to be just about demolished, although we still need to synchronize the ice-core data with thermometer records since about 1850, and then with the more recent satellite measurements.

As regards CO2's effect on climate based on other than correlation, I've seen little evidence for it, and a lot of evidence against. The IPCC's climate modelers start with the assumption that temperatures are alarming and that CO2 is the cause. Then they keep fiddling their weightings, and omitting offending data, to try to get the model to match their assumptions. A lot of research has been done since the IPCC first announced their position, which challenges their assumptions, and most of this has been ignored and dismissed by the IPCC without any logical basis.

There is a real tipping point involved in all this. I refer to the tipping point of 'consensus opinion'. Once that tipping point is reached, every 'responsible' media person and 'respectable pundit' must support the consensus opinion or be dismissed as a nutter. We then get a positive feedback loop, where the 'consensus' is supported by more and more 'unanimity'. In this case the feedback loop is more intense, because environmentalists were already worrying about CO2 before Gore pushed us over the tipping point with his pseudo documentary. The worry was has now become paranoia, due to the IPCC media hype, and the marginalizing of contrary views.

The evidence I've seen indicates that CO2 levels are well within the regulatory capacity of the Earth systems, and that the greenhouse effect of CO2 falls off logarithmically with the total amount of CO2. This would indicate that incremental CO2 added by humans has negligible effect, with or without regulation by other systems, such as precipitation. This is not intuitive. I was worried about CO2 as well, before I started investigating. I now give the danger about a 5% likelihood.

And no, they can't explain the Medieval Warm Period, which is why they try to subtract it out of their model by giving undue weight to atypical selected data sets. Meanwhile, solar-based models track temperature changes rather closely. But silly me, imagining the sun could have anything to do with temperature. Of course none of this means that burning more oil is a good thing, or that we don't need to achieve sustainability. That's the whole problem with this global warming hysteria: it's distracting from what needs to be done, and channeling our energy into making trillions for the cap-and-trade brokers, while the polluters will go right on polluting. People and corporations and industrial farming won't stop using oil, they'll just pay more for the privilege, and believe me the oil companies will get a big cut. Taxes have never stopped smoking or drinking and they won't reduce energy consumption. It's infrastructure changes we need, not ineffective sin taxes.

cheers,
rkm


The article by Rudolph Kipp, The Medieval Warm Period — a global phenomenon. Unprecedented warming or unprecedented data manipulation?, was originally written in German, and the link above leads to a page with a translation into English which is a bit mangled but nevertheless is quite comprehensible. A quote from this page:

Until about the mid-90s of last century the medieval warm period was an undisputed fact among climate researchers. Accordingly, in the first IPCC assessment report from 1990 on page 202 figure 7c [12] could be found, showing the medieval warm period clearly warmer than modern times. However, for the responsible scientists the existence of this warm period soon became a thorn in their sides. If in the 12th century it was even warmer, with the absence of human influence, than today at the so far peak of industrialization, why should the today warming not be primarily driven by mainly natural causes.

Thus, the Medieval Warm Period was soon declared an odious affair ... [and] the machinery for the deletion of the medieval warm period was already running on full power.

Click on this link for one of the graphs from the Excel file. This shows the Medieval Warm Period as the peak from 1.2 thousand years BP (i.e., 800 CE) to 0.75 thousand years BP (i.e., 1250 CE). At its warmest the temperature was 1° C higher than in 1900 CE.

The following link leads to a graphic at the end of Rudolph Kipp's article which shows that the data provided by the Greenland ice cores does not just show a local Medieval Warm Period — it was a global phenomenon. This completes the refutation of the claim that we know that the current warming is due to the increase of greenhouse gases consequent upon industrial activity.

Of course, that activity might well be an important factor in the current warming, but until climatologists can explain the warming phase of the MWP we cannot be sure of that. And, as stated above, the current warming is far less than that of the MWP, and also of that of the warming period in the 2nd millennium BCE (3,300 years ago), when the temperature rose to 2.8°C above that of today, as shown in this graph (in the Excel file). And this graph shows that over the last 10,000 years there has been a long-term cooling trend, suggesting that we are headed into a new ice age.


The global warming scare is a huge scam designed to increase the profits of the corporate capitalists and the parasitic international bankers, to advance their goal of a world government (controlled by them, of course), and to impose even more "legal" restrictions upon the freedom of people to live according to how they themselves think best.

But freedom for people does not mean freedom for corporate business to exploit the natural environment, to denude hillsides of trees and to appropriate water so as to extort money from those who need it. The problem we face is not global warming but rampant capitalist exploitation of the environment and of everyone who doesn't belong to the capitalist ruling class. The solution is not "carbon trading" schemes (which would do nothing more than enrich the trade managers) but rather regaining popular control over exploitative corporations, and in the longer term a restructuring of society (or perhaps a social revolution) to curb capitalist greed and to provide common people with the means to live a decent life and to provide a decent education for their children.


... it is safe to say that the wealth of science points to a natural change in our climate, and the entire history of the world and of all humanity supports this hypothesis. Throughout history, as in the earliest African civilizations, it was the ability of different peoples to change and adapt to climate change, which determined their survival as a civilization.

Today, we are trying to fight it. This is a dangerous road to walk, and history will not look kindly upon our scientific ignorance and politically fear-driven society. ... Trying to fight and stop a natural phenomenon is possibly one of the most ignorant and dangerous things humanity has ever engaged in. ...

Much of the people in the world have been riled up with predictions of a catastrophic end to mankind and the world unless we don't do something about so-called "man-made" climate change. Ironically enough, our refusal to adapt to a changing world, and instead a determination to fight it with our efforts to "go green" and "carbon neutral" may, in fact, cause the catastrophic end of our civilization. And sadly, in this instance, it would undeniably be a man-made disaster.

— Andrew Gavin Marshall, Climate Change: Breaking the "Political Consensus"

The folly of believing that humans can control the Earth's global climate would be exceeded only by the folly of actually trying to do so.


Further reading:


The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was set up to ensure that world leaders had the best possible scientific advice on climate change. But (chortle, chortle!) ...

The factors influencing Earth's global climate, and those influencing regional climates, are too many and interact with too much complexity for climate scientists to understand sufficiently to make even 1-year predictions. What we can predict is that if the banks are allowed to proceed with their "carbon trading" scam then they will make even more billions, at the expense of the social welfare of ordinary people. Therefore we (via our elected governments) should concentrate on curbing the greed of the banksters rather than on attempting to change global climate. But as long as governments are controlled by the 'financial elite' (and don't represent the interests of the people) this is unlikely to happen.


The Next Scientific Frontier: Sun-Earth Interactions is a page on Washington's Blog (more usually concerned with current social/economic/political matters) with subsections:

Fascinating reading.

Also on the same website: Scientific Experiments by Top Laboratory Shows that Cosmic Rays Affect Cloud Formation, Which in Turn Affects Climate


Actually there is a threat, but it is not from bogus "global warming" but rather from an impending new ice age, as noted above, and as discussed in the articles linked to below.

The global warming scare is a scam, and misinformed or dishonest schemes such as Julia Gillard's carbon tax are going to cost ordinary people a bundle.


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